Improving Profitability Through KPI For Finance

Filed Under: Finance    by: admin


In every business, managing finances is a great factor that can contribute to success. One of the ways to handle finance well is through making use of KPI for finance. Experts say when you cannot measure the effectives of a certain program or plan, then that cannot be considered useful to the business operation. Hence, it is important that results of financial plans can be measured. In this way, the company can see whether the said plan is in line with the aim of organizing the business finances.

Key Performance Indicators or commonly known as KPI are now the strategy used by many businessmen to manage their companies. KPIs are tools that the company or organization utilizes to quantify achievements. These are effective means to track progress in accomplishing tasks that are towards the goal of the company.

KPIs would differ according to the aspect of the company being assessed. Therefore, the finance KPIs is not the same as that of the KPIs for marketing, recruitment, or advertising. This is the case since every area serves different purposes and has different goals.

In general, KPIs can come in two ways – directional or quantifiable. The so-called directional KPIs give a simple assessment of a certain area of your operation. It only rates whether an implemented program is successful or a failure. Quantifiable KPIs, on the other hand, are the in depth analysis of a program. Companies, in most instances, prefer quantifiable KPIs as this will provide a better assessment of a specific program or area of the business. Literally speaking, data for quantifiable KPIs come in numbers. But these are interpreted and used as basis for further enhancement of the assessed program.

In the past, the concept of KPI is only applied to the finance aspect of the business. This is because management, as mentioned earlier, put utmost concern to the financial side of the operation. Finances dictate whether the company is successful or not through data of revenue or sales. Aside from profit, other financial indicators include cost, market share, and other money matters. But seen as an effective means of measuring performance, KPIs are currently not limited to financial aspect but also used in other aspects of the business, such as marketing, recruitment, administration, and advertising, to mention but a few.

There are some important matters to consider when coming up with KPIs regardless of what aspect it is intended to measure. Goal and analysis are among these considerations. Goals are used as basis to determine what KPIs are appropriate for a certain area. Analysis, on the other hand, should be noted to improve the productivity of the assessed area of the company.

For the part of the company, what is important is how they are going to use the derived results of the KPIs to their advantage. Improvement should be their target. In fact, they must work to address lapses in their financial operation. KPI for finance is only one of the many areas where companies can improve. Oftentimes though, finance is the first thing that business owners want to deal with because of its effect to the company. Remember that a well-organized set of finances is a good step towards profitability.

By: Sam Miller

About the Author:
If you are interested in KPI for finance, check this web-site to learn more about metric for finance.



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Small Business Finance – Help Budding Your Business

Filed Under: Finance    by: admin


Most of small business packages are adept at handling your personal finances, but only a handful of equipped to manage you business affairs, simply money, which supports entries for accounts payable and receivable, is the strongest package out of the box. To this prospect, small business finance has been propped up for entrepreneurs. However small this business provision is, it helps build a longer and successful infrastructural development of borrowers’ enterprises.

Before applying for this financial provision, applicants are required to chart out a small business plan. The plan should as successful in nature that it may envisage an anticipated success in business. For that, check you business plan, go through it again and again and try of find out shortcomings if any. Invest your time in solving the problem.

After, with that business plan go straight to any loan provider. Present it before your lender selected. And use best of your financial knowledge to convince the lenders with your reply. Once you bring around your lender with your business plan, a half of your problem is sorted out.

Seeing your financial feasibility, lenders offer with the obtaining financial options. Generally, small business finance is of two types i.e., secured and unsecured. For the former collateral arranging keeps an important place, while the latter, unsecured format remains devoid of it. As of lacing in pledging placing, more borrowers feel safer securing unsecured form of small business finance. Since there is no security of the borrower with lender, lenders compulsively incur upon higher interest rates.

Many lenders are available online and offline for business finance. Nonetheless, making practising simple and fast, online applying is preferred these days. The way is very simple and convenient. Entire of the processing is done right online. Just in click and innumerable sites of different lenders gets opened before you, you are only required to select a right lender of your choice.

By: Ben Gannon

About the Author:
Ben Gannon is a senior financial analyst at Cheap Finance UK with an acumen for business and loans. In recent years he has taken up to provide independent financial advice through his informative articles. His articles are widely read because of the lucid manner of writing and thoroughly researched datas. To find Small business finance, cheap personal loans, cheap finance UK that best suits your need visit http://www.cheapfinanceuk.co.uk/



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Stock Investment Options

Filed Under: Investing    by: admin


Investment in stocks is considered risky. This is the reason why every stock brokerage firm, Investment Company or an Initial Public Offering carries a disclaimer and warning about the risks of investments in stocks.

Despite the most scientific and historical analysis, a stock may surprise you with its sudden unexpected vivacities and tantrums. This is why you have to invest even in ‘hot’ stocks with utmost caution. Sometimes they turn out to be like hot potatoes. High expectations are invariably accompanied by high risks of losses.

The best policy in stock investing is to take an intermediate course. There are certain stock investment options which deliver assured and consistent high returns over the long term and allow you to sleep peacefully too.

Moreover, you need not invest huge amounts in stock trading and create deep holes in your pocket in the event of loss. Some brokerages offer scheduled investment plans. These are customizable investment plans. You do not have to stretch your financial resources to a breaking point in order to invest in such plans. You can invest according to your budget and build a portfolio over time and make substantial savings for your future. The scheduled investment plans allow you to create a custom portfolio of stocks by specifying an amount that you can conveniently invest.

You can schedule your account to automatically buy these stocks on a one-time or recurring basis, whether daily, weekly or monthly. Scheduled investments can be easily combined with scheduled electronic transfers to make saving and investing nearly automatic. You can choose one of the several investment plans with the help of your broker. You can set up automated fund transfers from your bank account and let your broker know what to buy.

The second secure investment option is to open an Individual Retirement Account. IRA is a personal retirement plan that offers tax advantages to investors. It allows the investors to deposit a portion of their income into tax deferred brokerage account. Your contributions may also be tax-deductible.

You must, however, have an Individual Taxpayer Identification Number (ITIN) to avail of tax benefits. “An Individual Taxpayer Identification Number (ITIN) is a tax processing number issued by the Internal Revenue Service. IRS issues ITIN to individuals who are required to have a U.S. taxpayer identification number but who do not have, and are not eligible to obtain a Social Security Number (SSN) from the Social Security Administration (SSA).
ITIN are issued regardless of immigration status because both resident and non-resident aliens may have U.S. tax return and payment responsibilities under the Internal Revenue Code. Individuals must have a filing requirement and file a valid federal income tax return to receive an ITIN, unless they meet an exception.”

The third stock investment option is to go for Index ETFs or Exchange Traded Funds. ETFs are funds that track an index but cannot be traded like a stock. An index represents the relative value of a market by following a representative folio of stocks. For example, the NASDAQ-100 index is the combination of 100 biggest non-financial stocks in the NASDAQ market and the S&P 500 represents 500 different stocks across all markets. ETFs are ideal investment options over the long term since they are automatically diversified. Diversification means spreading your funds across different investments. In other words you do not have to put all your eggs in one basket. This way if one investment shows poor results, it will not show substantial effect on the over all performance of your portfolio. Diversification is a surer way to reduce risks. Moreover, buying the ETFs costs very little if you open your account with the right stock broker.

By purchasing the same dollar amounts of index ETFs, you can automatically track the performance of the index that the ETF tracks. This automatically enables you to obtain the same return as that index. It must be noted that the S&P 500 index has historically returned around 10% returns every year. Your investment is compounded automatically which means that regular investments, howsoever small they may be, can grow into very sizeable amount over the long term with compounding effect. It must be noted that the interest you earn is reinvested which, in turn, generates its own interest. You enjoy much greater potential gains over a long time.

By: Micheal James

About the Author:
Pricing and Features for Sogotrade Investment Packages: online investment
Sogotrade Interest Rates and Fees: trading stock options



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Concepts of Investment – Knowing and Understanding Investments

Filed Under: Investing    by: admin


Let us begin by first defining what an investment is. When you invest energy into something, whether it be material energy such as money, mental energy as in the case of writing a book, or any other type of sacrifice, you want to get a return of some kind. The idea can be as simple as choosing to sacrifice your time and energy washing dishes after a meal so that you get the “return” of feeling satisfaction for contributing to the meal in some way, or repaying the person who made it for their effort. Other concepts of investment can be as complex as studying trends and growth patterns of companies along with news stories that hint at what may be in store for various organizations that you have invested money in though stocks.

Before you decide what you want to invest in though, figure out what you want to get out of your concepts of investment. Are you looking for security and consistency in your life? Perhaps you should invest in a home that can be easily paid for, one that will be yours alone for the rest of your life. Are you looking for new experiences? Perhaps you should invest effort into learning the language of a culture you are absorbed by and would like to immerse yourself in. Until you know your ultimate goal, there is not any way to clearly or properly define what concepts of investment you should pour your energy into, or how you should go about doing it. Your first undertaking must be deciding and knowing what you want out of life. If spiritual satisfaction is what you’re after, maybe you should dedicate your life to creating art and sharing it with other people.

When your goal is finally crystallized in your mind, it will be time to figure out the best course of action. Investments are inherently about risk and sacrifice, and if your commitment to yours is serious then this is not something to be taken lightly. Careful, objective consideration must be exercised to avoid losses. Since the world is filtered differently through each individual’s senses and mind, nobody’s view can ever be completely objective. To move closer to the clearer point of view of objectivity, it is imperative that information is diligently collected from as wide a sampling of sources as possible.

In our quickly changing world it has also become increasingly necessary to consider the future worth of any given investment. By using patterns and clearly established trends combined and the human gift of logic, it is possible with due diligence to make accurate projections about what is going to happen in the short and long term future. For example, if you had been planning to purchase a home with the intention of selling it later in a booming market with ever rising prices but then found information that strongly suggested that the trend would not continue it would be wise to reevaluate the path you have chosen. Should the market begin to tumble and you cannot sell the property, it can be easy to go into debt very quickly. Now that you better understand some concepts of investment, you can be more confident in approaching one that looks appealing to you.

By: Wendy Pan

About the Author:
Wendy Pan is an accomplished niche website developer and author. To learn more about concepts of investment [http://mysmartinvestingtoday.info/concepts-of-investment-knowing-and-understaing-investements], please visit My Smart Investing Today [http://mysmartinvestingtoday.info] for current articles and discussions.



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Personal Training-Finance Tips in Exactly Three Words

Filed Under: Personal Finance    by: admin


Last fall, after years as a “do-it-yourselfer” in the area of fitness, I surprised myself and decided to hire a personal trainer, Laura Creagan of New England Endurance Training. No, I’m not a Hollywood starlet trying to get her pre-baby, red carpet-ready body back or an elite athlete trying to win Olympic gold. I’m not even trying to compete in, much less win, any races at the local, “age group” level.

I’m just someone who loves the same activities Laura loves – cycling, cross-country skiing, running, etc. Someone who gets a kick out of reaching new milestones in old favorite activities. Someone who loves getting out in the great outdoors for a couple/few hours of aerobic activity. Someone who values the resulting health benefits…

So why on earth would I need a personal trainer? The thing is: I like these activities so much so that I sometimes overdo it and end up injured. (So much for those health benefits!) Plus I’ve got a few new milestones in mind for next bike season.

So when I read an article about Laura describing how she’d excelled in a grueling winter triathlon in Austria, I couldn’t help but think: “If she can perform at that level, she obviously knows something I don’t. And I’d sure love to know whatever that is (sooner rather than later) without Googling and poring over books and distilling boatloads of information and using trial and error.”

It took a few months before I could convince myself to take action – what with not being a starlet or star athlete – but I kept hearing the echo in my head of words I’d said to potential financial planning clients thinking about making the switch from do-it-yourselfers. “Yes, you might achieve your goals on your own, but getting one-on-one advice from someone who’s been trained and is around this stuff all the time is likely to get you there sooner with fewer missteps.”

So I finally decided to give it a try. And – no surprise – it turns out Laura does know plenty that I don’t about training, but our work together has also taught me a lot of lessons about advisor/advisee relationships of all sorts, especially those I have with my clients. Not all of these lessons are new, nor are they rocket science. But my experience working with Laura has helped me to better understand them from the advisee’s perspective, which I’m convinced will reflect benefits back in my practice.

In keeping with the fact that this is the third in a trilogy of articles of physical/fiscal fitness analogies ( see footnote for other two ), and to reuse a fun gimmick I recently ran across, those lessons… each in exactly 3 words.

1. It’s not magic. There are no guarantees in personal training or personal finance, but if you stick to a plan based on time-tested principles, you’ll get better results.

2. Goals dictate actions. Only do enough to reach your goal, no more, no less. Less isn’t enough, and more could cause burnout or injury. (Remember, you can always up the ante with a new goal once the current one proves achievable.)

3. Trained eyes see. If there’s a hole in your plan, the advisor can’t help but notice cause/effect relationships that the advisee may not recognize. For example, just as having no emergency fund can lead to costly credit card debt in the personal finance realm, no strength training can lead to physical strain and injury.

4. Reach new heights. With the help of an advisor who has more insight into what’s possible AND what needs to be done to achieve it, you can reach new heights, e.g. “You really think I can retire (complete the Assault on Mt. Mitchell ) this year?”

5. Reconsider discarded ideas. Just because you tried spinning (monitoring expenses) before and hated it doesn’t necessarily mean it won’t work this time. Getting creative with a new tool or technique, or finally seeing the power of the idea, may be just the thing that makes it click.

6. Apply technology judiciously. You can benefit greatly from using the technology that exists to measure heart rate (investment performance), but if you try to watch it 24/7, you’ll probably get distracted from your goal, perhaps even crash.

7. Measure progress periodically. Monitoring your heart rate, power, and strength (net worth and cash flow) over time will tell where you are vs. your goal, allowing you and your advisor to adjust as necessary.

8. Accountability is good. We’re all adults here. Still, having to ‘fess up to having skipped an important workout (IRA contribution) sure is a great motivator.

9. Avoid boom/bust. Overtraining (living like a pauper) when you first start a plan is more likely to result in injury (binge spending) than in improved performance (a bigger nest egg).

10. Persist through setbacks. Reaching your fitness (financial) goals takes time, and you won’t always make progress in a nice straight line. Instead of getting discouraged and abandoning your plan for the new hot shortcut you saw in “Get Fit (Rich) Kwik” magazine, check with your advisor. While you may need a course correction, it’s possible a few words of encouragement will do the trick. (Thanks, Laura!)

By: Sherrill St. Germain

About the Author:
Sherrill St. Germain, MBA, CFP®
New Means Financial Planning
Principal
(603) 465 3485

Get the FREE tip sheet “The ABC’s of Personal Finance: An A-to-Z Guide to Keeping More of the Money You Make” at http://www.newmeans.com.



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Property Investment in Jordan – New Horizons in Investment

Filed Under: Investing    by: admin


When looking at the markets for overseas property investment, countries such as Dubai, Bulgaria and Brazil are often debated. The past couple of years however have seen aggressive growth levels in the market for property in Jordan, as internal and external factors culminate in a favourable economic climate for investment in the region.

Recent years have seen the beginnings of a strong period of growth and investment in the Jordan real estate market, as increasing numbers of investors and developers look to capitalise on the country’s high economic growth and political stability.

The past five years have seen increasing numbers of non-Jordanians purchasing property in Jordan, predominantly in the major commercial centres of Amman and Zarqa. In particular, increasing numbers of Kuwaiti’s, Saudi’s, Syrians and Iraqi’s have bought property in Jordan, looking to capitalise on the consistent period of economic growth in the region since 2002.

It is thought that there are three main factors which have resulted in this growth in the market for property in Jordan. The first reason is the security and stability of Jordan, especially given the relative instability in other countries within the region. The second reason was the reform of a number of public policies which resulted in lower interest rates in Jordan, this cheaper form of borrowing again caught the eye of overseas property investors. The final factor was the amended Landlords and Tenants Law No.11, which effectively ended the fixed rent era in Jordan, and saw the market move to a more self-regulatory model.

It is estimated that the market for property in Jordan will continue to grow at around 10-20% per annum. More general factors such as the changing attitudes towards owning apartments and the gradual maturing of a relatively young population is likely to result in continued organic growth in the Jordan property market.

As a result of these confident projections of growth in the Jordan property market, major development projects such as the Abdali project and King Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz City are already well underway. As well as this, new large-scale projects in destinations such as Aqaba are also under consideration, and an increasingly pro-investment legislature has overseen the handover of numerous large plots of land to major developers for these major projects. As these large-scale projects come online, it is likely that the Jordan property market will experience a period of sustained, aggressive growth.

With property in Jordan currently more affordable than other countries in the region, there is an increasing amount of interest in the region from overseas investors. This external interest, coupled with an increasing amount of local interest, is likely to result in a sustained period of economic growth in the Jordanian property market, and favourable returns for overseas property investors.

By: Mark J Burns

About the Author:
Mark Burns is a Partner at Offplanworld.tv, a real estate consultancy specialising in property in Amman as well as offering a wide selection of property in Jordan



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Annuity Investment Guide

Filed Under: Investing    by: admin


While there is not a lack of information on annuities, there certainly is a lack of good information. In an age full of information, we are constantly bombarded with irrelevant data. Annuities are great investment vehicles. Annuities are bad investment vehicles. Annuities were my mom’s worst nightmare. You have heard all the stories. So what do you do?

When it comes to annuity investment guides what we have tried to do is offer the truth. “Annuities: The Shocking Truths Revealed,” is about getting rid of the investment noise that we are bombarded with constantly. It is a no-nonsense approach about the good, the bad, and the ugly of fixed annuities, variable annuities, equity index annuities and even life insurance to minimize estate taxes. It was written because I believe there is not a good enough annuities investment guide to help the average person understand their annuities.

Furthermore, it was written because people need to know the truth about their annuities. They need to know the dirty little lies insurance agents are using to sell annuities. It is outrageous to see so many people fooled by their investment counselors and financial advisors. One section actually talks about how to tell a good agent from a bad agent. Furthermore, it just tells in plain english what annuities are good for and what annuities are not good for. People can actually read this annuity investment guide and walk away feeling at least knowledgeable in the area of an annuity.

So if you are looking for the right annuity investment guide, you have come to the right place. Come to http://www.annuitymd.com and see what we have to say. Learn the truth about your annuities from an unbiased perspective. We’ll even tell you what’s wrong with annuities so you don’t buy something that doesn’t fit your needs.

For the most part, information is free, but wisdom is priceless. And as one wise man once said, “If you think education is expensive, try ignorance!” Knowledge and education about annuities and investments is valuable. Get it from a trusted source and read an annuity book that can truly help you decide on annuities and your future.

Ignorance is not bliss…

By: Tony Bahu

About the Author:
Tony Bahu is the author of the controversial document, ‘Annuities: The Shocking Truths Revealed’, which reveals the secrets that the banks and insurance companies don’t want you to know.

For more information on his document, visit the site below right now!

http://www.AnnuityMD.com



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Behavioural Finance: Focus on Intrinsic Value

Filed Under: Finance    by: admin


INTRODUCTION

The volume of research in the field of Behavioural Finance has grown over the recent years. The field merges the concepts of finance, economics and psychology to understand the human behaviour in the financial markets, to form winning investment strategies.

THE CONCEPT OF BEHAVIOURAL FINANCE

Behavioural finance is the study of the influence of psychology on the behaviour of financial practitioners and the subsequent effect on markets. Principal objective of an investment is to make money. We usually assume that investors always act in a manner that maximizes their return rationally. The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), the central proposition of finance for the last thirty five years rests on assumption of rationality. But it has been proved that people are ruled as much by emotion as by cold logic and selfishness. While the emotions such as fear and greed often play an important role in poor decisions, there are other causes like cognitive biases, heuristics (shortcuts) that take investors to incorrectly analyse new information about a stock or currency and thus overreact or under react. Behavioural Finance is the study of how these mental errors and emotions can cause stocks or currency to be overvalued or undervalued, and to create investment strategies that gives a winning edge over the others investors.

I would like to bring out the behaviour pattern of a rational investor. This rational investor is assumed to act rationally in following ways:

o Makes decisions to maximize the expected utility.

o Fully informed with unbiased information.

o Absence of any distortion of judgement based on emotions.

It is to be kept in mind that risk resides not only in the price movements of dollars, gold, oil, commodities, companies and bonds. It also lurks inside us – in the way we misinterpret information, fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we do, and overreact to market swings. Information is useless if we misinterpret it or let emotions sway our judgement. Human beings are irrational about investing. Correct behaviour patterns are absolutely essential to successful investing – so to be financially successful one has to overcome these tendencies. if we can recognise these destructive urges, we can avoid them. Behavioural Finance combines the disciplines of economics and psychology specifically to study this phenomenon.

THE CONCEPT OF BUBBLES IN STOCK MARKET

A speculative bubble occurs when actions by market participants’ results in stock prices to deviate from their fundamental valuation over a prolonged period of time. Speculative bubbles are difficult to explain by rational trading behaviour, and theories have been put forward to explain market psychology through behavioural finance1. They propose that when significant proportion of trading activity in the market is characterized by positive feedback behaviour, it may result in asset prices to shift away from their fundamental valuation. This price deviation encourages rational investors to trade in the same direction.

Speculative trades are based upon investors’ private information held today, and are designed to provide investors with higher returns in the next period when that private information is fully revealed to the market. This implies a positive correlation in returns as market incorporate the information into prices. Trades due to portfolio rebalancing, or hedging, is not information based, and occurs when a trader may increase (or decrease) his stock holding by buying (or selling) a portion of his stock holding. This will be accomplished by increasing (or decreasing) the stock price to induce the opposite side of the trade.

FOCUS ON INTRINSIC VALUE

What are the implications for corporate managers? It is believed that such market deviations make it even more important for the executives of a company to understand the intrinsic value of its shares. This knowledge allows it to exploit any deviations, if and when they occur, to time the implementation of strategic decisions more successfully. Here are some examples of how corporate managers can take advantage of market deviations:

o Issuing additional share capital when the stock market attaches too high a value to the company’s shares relative to their intrinsic value.

o Repurchasing shares when the market under-prices them relative to their intrinsic value.

o Paying for acquisitions with shares instead of cash when the market overprices them relative to their intrinsic value.

Two things must be kept in mind as regards this aspect of market deviations.

Firstly, these decisions must be grounded in a strong business strategy driven by the goal of creating shareholder value.

Secondly, managers should be cautious of analyses claiming to highlight market deviations. Furthermore, the deviations should be significant in both size and duration. Provided that a company’s share price eventually returns to its intrinsic value in the long run, managers would benefit from using a discounted-cash-flow approach for strategic decisions.

It can thus be summarized that for strategic business decisions, the evidence strongly suggests that the market reflects intrinsic value.

INVESTING IRRATIONALITIES

Often turbulence in the market isn’t linked to any perceivable event but to investor psychology. A fair amount of portfolio losses can be traced back to investor choices and reasons for making them. I would like to point out some of the ways by which investors unthinkingly inflict problems on themselves :

Herding

This is a cardinal sin in investing and this tendency to follow the crowd and depend on the direction of others is exactly how problems in the stock market arise. There are two actions that are caused by herd mentality:

o Panic buying

o Panic selling

Holding Out for a rare treat

Some investors, praying for a reversal for their stocks, hold onto them, other investors, settling for limited profit, sell stock that has great long-term potential. One of the big ironies of the investing world is that most investors are risk averse when chasing gains but become risk lovers when trying to avoid a loss.

If we are shifting our non-risk capital into high-risk investments, we are contradicting every rule of prudence to which the stock market ascribes and asking for further problems.

ISSUES

One of the most important issues in Behavioural Finance is whether the assumptions of investor rationality are realistic or not.

The concept can be explained with the help of an example. Let’s assume that Mr. X invests and manages his portfolio in an efficient market. Here only seconds are available for a response to the news. There are a great number of factors that affect the decision of Mr. X. Further, these factors can affect each other. How can Mr. X draw the right judgements when the information is updated very frequently? Probably Mr. X works on a computer, through out the day, on which a utility function program is installed for his work. Every decision Mr. X is based on the calculation given by his computer. As soon as the portfolio is rebalanced, the computers utility function program analyses new alternatives. This process goes on and on over the course of the day. Obviously, Mr X does not show any joy, when he wins and no panic when he looses. Can a human brain behave like this? We know that a human brain can master only seven pieces of information at any one time.

So, how could one possibly absorb all the relevant information and process it correctly? People use simplifying heuristics (shortcuts) in order to control the complexity of information received. Psychological research has shown that the human brain often uses shortcuts to solve complex problems. These heuristics are rules or strategies for information processing, which help to find a quick, but not necessary optimal, solution. Once the information is simplified to manageable level, people use judgement heuristics. These shortcuts are needed to resolve the decision making as quickly as possible. Heuristics are also used to arrive at a quick judgement, they can, however, also systematically distort judgement in certain situations.

SIMPLIFICATION BIAS

The first step in reducing complexity is to simplify the decision. However it also adds the risk of arriving at a non-rational conclusion, unless one is careful.

MENTAL ACCOUNTING

People focus on one account (say purchase of share x) in particular when weighing things, relationship with other commitments or accounts (say purchase of share y) are usually ignored. I would like to explain this with the help of an illustration. For instance, Company A produces bathing costumes, and company B produces raincoats. Both companies are new, extremely efficient and innovating, so that purchasing shares in these companies would be a profitable proposition. A financial gain, however depends to a large extent on the whether in both cases, Company A will produce huge profits if the weather is fine, while Company B will make a loss, even though this is kept to a minimum, thanks to its efficient management. The situation is reversed in the case of bad weather. With mental accounting, either investment is risky when seen in isolation. But if we take into account the mutual effect of the uncertainty factor, i.e. the weather, then a combination of both shares become a lucrative, and at the same time secure investment.

AVAILABILITY CONSTRAINT

Not everybody has same degree of information. Some people prefer to see business news on CNBC TV 18, NDTV PROFIT. But others may like to see the serials on STAR PLUS. Obviously the first one may have more information, as compared to second.

REPRESENTATIVENESS

This is one of the mental shortcuts that make it hard for investors to correctly analyse new information. It helps the brain organise and quickly process large stock of data, but can cause investors to overreact to old information. For example, if a company is repeatedly giving losses, investors will become disillusioned with this past data, and thus may overreact to past information by ignoring valid signs of recovery. Thus, the stock of the company is undervalued because of this bias.

CHLALLENGES

Under the paradigm of traditional financial economics, decision makers are considered to be rational and utility maximizing. The assumption of rational expectations is simply an assumption – an assumption that could turn out not to be true.

Behavioural Finance has the potential to be a valuable supplement to the traditional financial theories in making investment decisions. The following fundamentals of behavioural finance give us a glimpse of the pitfalls to be avoided. These are the challenges which need to be overcome and addressed.

1. Hubris hypothesis: it is the tendency to be over optimistic. It results from psychological biases. The investor gets swayed by the momentum generated in the markets in recent past.

2. Sheep theory: it is a phenomenon where all the investors are running in the same direction. They follow the herd – not voluntarily, but to avoid being trampled.

3. Loss aversion: it says that investors take more risk when threatened with a loss. Thus mental penalty associated with a given loss is greater than the mental reward from a gain of the same size.

4. Anchoring: this causes investors to under react to new information. This can lead to investors to expect a company’s earning to be in line with historical trends, leading to possible under reaction to trend changes.

5. Framing: this states that the way people behave depends on their way decision problems are framed. Even the same problem framed in different ways can cause people to make different choices.

6. Overconfidence: this is what leads people to think that they know more than they do. It leads investors to overestimate their predictive skills and believe they can time the market.

RELEVANCE TO INDIAN STOCK MARKETS

Behavioural finance holds definite clues and appears apt in the current IPO craze as regards Indian markets are concerned. The herd mentality is evident in the scramble for shares. As the positive information of excess subscriptions comes, more investors enter the bandwagon. When Prices of the stocks start soaring, everyone one is thinking of the same thing: I am going to sell on listing and book the profits. Can money making be so simple? Is life and the financial markets so predictable? One will see investors selling the stocks as soon as they get the allotments. Herd mentality will be at work with people trying to sell faster than the neighbour, thus eroding stock values at a faster rate. Greed thus becomes the graveyard. One needs to understand that there are no shortcuts to earning money. One has to work hard and have patience.

It is believed that perfect application of Behavioural finance can make an Indian investor successful, making fewer mistakes. Even if we learn to identify some common psychological and cognitive errors that plague even the wisest investment professional, it may be enough. To put it in Simple words, economic theory starts with a flawed basic premise that the investor is a rational being who will always act to maximise his financial gain. Yet, we are not rational beings, we are human beings.

In stock markets, behavioural finance can help explain situations such as why we hold on to stocks that are crashing, foolishly sell stocks that are rising, ridiculously overvalue stocks, jump in late and never find our right price to buy and sell stocks.

Let’s take the example of the recent discovery of gas by Reliance industries. The stock starts spurting as everyone starts buying on this news. Newspapers start flashing stories as to the size of such a discovery.

But let us analyse the situation without becoming a prey to mental heuristics. Gas has been discovered but the same needs to be drilled which takes a lot of time and money. What is the quality of the gas? How many wells would be needed for drilling? How much time will it take? How much money would be required and what are the plans to finance the same? How easy it is going to be to extract the same? These are all important and pertinent questions. In this time lag there are so many uncertainties the company will have to go through, before the profits are reaped. However, analysts have started predicting the future profitability of Reliance and on such hopes investors start buying the stock at rising prices.

This is how mental heuristics work when the brain takes a shortcut in processing information and does not process the full information and its implications. Thus behavioural finance has a pivotal role to play in Indian Capital market.

CONCLUSION

Knowing the heuristics shall help the investors to which they are susceptible and this will help them in neutralizing to some extent the distortions in the perception and assimilation of information. This will in turn, help the investor to take a rational decision and get a cutting edge over the other not-so-rational investors.

More research on behavioural finance should take place not only in asset pricing but also in areas like project appraisal & investment decisions and other areas of corporate finance, so that managers can avoid the decision traps. Psychology and irrational behaviour matter on financial markets. Behavioural finance is relevant in many ways. It educates investors about how to avoid biases, designing long and short term strategies to exploit biases; and being aware that decision-makers in financial markets are human beings with biases. We also need to realize that an implicit assumption of behavioural finance is that their findings at individual level are scaleable to market level.

By: Amarendra Bhushan Dhiraj

About the Author:
About the Author

Mr. Amarendra B. Dhiraj is a frequent speaker at internationally renowned global events, CEO/CTO/CIO Roundtables, Technology Conferences and Symposiums. He hosted and organized the Executive Technology Leadership Forum. He specializes in strategy, innovation, and leadership for change. His strategic and practical insights have guided leaders of large and small organizations worldwide.

Amarendra Bhushan has been named to lists of the European Management Guru and is named as “Europe’s youngest management Guru” and one of the “Top most influential business thinkers in the world”. http://www.theerce.com, http://www.indogreek.org The Economic Times, CNBC, moneycontrol



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Personal Finance – How to Determine Excessive Personal Spending

Filed Under: Personal Finance    by: admin


You can think that it is easy to recognize excessive personal spending when you observe someone buying goods and services according to what appears to be an extensive appetite of wants. This observation maybe true, but is at risk of passing judgment, and perhaps not having enough information about the person being observed. A better approach is to evaluate personal spending within the context of fulfilling a desired goal and then decide if the spending pattern can support the resource need to accomplish the desired goal. The following is a basic plan that can quickly help you to determine excessive personal spending.

1. Establish a future reference by visualizing your desired position three to five years from today. It is best to establish the long-term position first before the short-term in order to remain focused and motivated

2. Write down this visualization in a statement titled”Vision Statement” and include a projected emotional response as you journey towards fulfillment

3. Write an achievement goal that is essential to realizing your vision within each of the following areas such as: Social – e.g. Marriage, or Children or a major vacation or a visit to at least three continents; Educational – To receive an advanced degree or certificate or Career change; Financial – Double household income or Start a business or Establish a fund for your children education; and Personal health -Actively engaged in the practice of “good” health habits

4. Project the dollar amount that will be needed to achieve your goals and realize your vision within three to five years

5. Determine your current spending pattern/month to see if you will have the resources or if you will need to make adjustments in order to realize your vision in three to five years

This step by step method allows a self-evaluation for determining your spending pattern and provides data for you to decide if you are spending excessively.

By: Frederick James

About the Author:
Learn more about value-added spending, revenue retention, cash flow, and personal finance and health by going to http://www.cashovercash.com/gift032710v1



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Personal Finance Options For People With Bankruptcy and a Bad Credit History

Filed Under: Personal Finance    by: admin


Do you have a bad credit rating, i.e., a credit rating of less than 580? Are you almost bankrupt or have filed for bankruptcy? Do you need personal finance as the payday is a few weeks away? If your answers to these questions are “Yes,” you need not worry. Fortunately, there are several subprime and bad credit lenders who lend money to people with a low credit rating and can help you out.

Subprime and bad credit lenders have a variety of personal finance options available for individuals with past bankruptcies. To begin with, you can check with your local bank or credit union whether it offers bad credit loans. You can also search on the internet for bad credit lending houses that offer loans and personal finance options.

However, do bear in mind that the risk of lending money to people with bad credit ratings is high, and therefore, the interest rate that the loan companies charge for loans is at least 4% higher than the typical prime lending rate of banks.

Here are some things you need to bear in mind if you are looking for a lender to help you out:

1. Consider a number of sources before you sign up for a loan; do not accept the first offer that you get from a subprime lender.

2. Read and understand the entire loan agreement carefully, especially the repayment schedule, as well as check whether you can really afford this loan. The loan details may be wonderful, but if your pay check does not give you the cushion to take the loan, re-consider your decision before you sign the agreement.

3. Further, learn everything about the other “hidden” charges such as transaction fees and application fees that the loan will entail. Ensure that you clarify all the details regarding the loan agreement with the lender. Especially, if there is a certain part that you do not understand, ask your loan agent to explain it in detail.

If your credit history is bad or if you have undergone a bankruptcy, it may become a little difficult for you to obtain a loan. Some lenders and subprime loan providers require additional security and may charge higher interest rates, but they will certainly be able to help you. Just spend some time and effort on conducting a thorough research to find the right personal finance option from a bad credit lender that maximizes your chances of sailing through the bad financial times.

By: Joseph Then

About the Author:
So, one solution is to look for a bad credit lender. If you are able to declare bankrupt, it is good to consider Chapter 7 Exemptions



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